The Housing Market- Are We Rebounding??

"They say..this.."    "They are saying that..."  Before you believe everything you read in the papers and on the web, and everything you hear on the television, ask yourself not only "Who are they", but also "Where are they" ?  Remember, real estate is local, not only within a state, but city to city, and neighborhood to neighborhood within a city.  And just as different areas of the country moved up at different times and at different rates, the move downward varied.  Oh, and for those of us in Southern California, that wasn't an earthquake we had a couple of days, it was the real estate hitting the bottom!!

So, the question remains, are we rebounding, close to rebounding, or still a ways off?  While nothing is certain in life orreal estate (except for death and taxes, of course), here are some factors to indicated we may be about to start moving back up.   While it is unlikely that anyone will time it exactly right, if you buy close to the bottom, you are doing all right.  Assuming you plan to stay in your home for awhile.  Some factors to look at:

IS THE HOUSING INVENTORY DECREASING?

When there are too many homnes on the market, and too few buyers, prices tend to slide.  It is a matter of  supply and demand..  In a stable housing market, we should see about six months worth of houses.  That means if no more homes came on the market, it would take about six months to sell all the current inventory.  As of July 1, 2008, here in the Conejo Valley, (the communities of Oak Park, Agoura, Westlake, Thousand Oaks, and Westlake)  we are at about 6.6 months of inventory.   That is slighly higher than a year ago July  (Just over 5 months) but significantly less that  the peak of 13.4 months of  last November.

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ARE HOME PRICES FALLING AT A SLOWER PACE?

This is still early, in our area.  Prices didn't really fall here so much in 2006 or 2007.  They did start to fall in the beginning of 2008.  But if we look at the data from April, prices do appear to be rebounding.  the average slaes price in April of this year was $679,831, and for the mont of July, was $795,979.  A small time period for sure, but may be telling.


On a very local level, in our office, sales are up- and agents are out showing lots of homes.  It appears, we may, indeed, be about to rebound.

Click here to SEARCH FOR HOMES IN OAK PARK, AGOURA, WESTLAKE, AND ALL OF VENTURA COUNTY.

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